Examples¶
Every certificate below ships with the package (twindex example NAME) and is
replayed in CI on Python 3.10–3.13.
| name | kind | verdict | what it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
regression_pair |
pair | VALID | analytic case on [0,4]⁴: p = x(1−x)/2 certifies θ = 0 and θ = (4,4,4,4), gap 4 |
theta500_pair |
pair | VALID | data from θ̄ = 500: twins at θ₀ = 0 and θ₀ = 1000, so the certified diameter is the full prior width |
witness_theta500 |
witness | VALID | the generating parameter is data-compatible |
box_inside |
box | VALID | the whole box [0,2]⁴ is data-compatible |
box_outside |
box | VALID | the whole box [0,4]⁴ misses the θ̄ = 500 data |
paving_regression |
paving | VALID | certified 4 ≤ D ≤ 4 on [0,4]⁴ |
paving_theta500 |
paving | VALID | certified 2 ≤ D ≤ 2 on the local prior [499,501]⁴ |
invalid_gap |
pair | INVALID | the claimed gap exceeds the exact gap |
invalid_bc |
pair | INVALID | a candidate violates p(0) = 0 |
inconclusive |
witness | INCONCLUSIVE | a crude candidate cannot decide compatibility |
The headline result¶
With five sensors at x = 1/6, …, 5/6, noise ε = 10⁻³, data generated at
θ̄ = (500, 500, 500, 500) and prior [0, 1000]⁴, the certified twins are
θ = (0, 999.999999, 24.179257, 827.878564)
θ' = (1000, 0.000001, 975.820743, 172.121436)
These data do not reduce the worst-case uncertainty in θ₀ below the prior
bound: every estimator has worst-case error at least 500. This is a
prior-limited result. It does not claim that every intermediate θ₀ is
compatible, and it says nothing about the other coordinates.